Fastmarkets Vegoils Commentary: CPO futures down on related markets; soyoil drops on crude oil
- James J Jasko
- Dec 9, 2025
- 6 min read
Crude palm oil (CPO) futures closed in negative territory on Monday December 8, as sustained weakness in the wider vegoil complex and sluggish buying momentum kept downward pressure on futures, with overall sentiment cautious ahead of Wednesday’s data release by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) as well as other key data expected this week.
The most-active February CPO futures contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell by 1.4% to close at 4,094 ringgit ($996) per tonne, nearly unchanged from 4,095 ringgit per tonne at the midday break and after trading between 4,085-4,134 ringgit per tonne.
Crude palm oil (CPO) tracked losses in CME soyoil futures during Asia trading hours, while Chinese vegetable oil futures registered losses across palm olein and soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange and rapeseed oil on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange.
Rapeseed oil futures in particular recorded larger losses compared with palm olein and soybean oil amid rising global supply and cautious market sentiment over potentially more Australian canola arrivals, with the most-active January contract down by 1.49% to 9,502 yuan ($1,344) per tonne.
The most-active contracts for palm olein and soybean oil on DCE meanwhile fell by 0.23% and 0.41% to 8,706 yuan per tonne and 8,230 yuan per tonne respectively.
The Malaysian ringgit, meanwhile, was marginally softer against the US dollar compared with the morning, though maintained overall strength, limiting fresh buying interest for the ringgit-denominated CPO futures.
In the cash markets, activity to India was limited with the weaker Indian rupee against the dollar keeping prices of imports relatively more expensive. Selling ideas for December and January shipment CPO were around $1,105 per tonne CFR west coast India (WCI), while buying ideas for each month were at $1,085-1,090 per tonne CFR WCI and $1,095 per tonne CFR WCI respectively.
Offers for December-shipment CPO out of Indonesia were also heard around $1,070 per tonne FOB Indonesia, while olein offers for January-shipment were around $1,025 per tonne FOB Indonesia.
In other news, China imported 720,000 tonnes of edible vegetable oils in November, according to estimates from the country’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) released on Monday.
This was an increase from the 540,000 tonnes imported in October, with cumulative January-November imports at 6.27 million tonnes, 3% lower than the 6.46 million tonnes imported during the same period a year earlier.
As of 6pm Central European Time, Euronext February rapeseed futures were trading at €476.75 ($554), up by just €0.25 per tonne from the end of last week.
FOB Rotterdam rapeseed oil (RSO) prices opened the trading week on a slightly higher note, despite a quiet market tone and losses in the wider vegetable oils complex on Monday.
Increases in Paris-listed rapeseed futures supported RSO, while pressure came from lower Canadian canola and US soybeans and soybean oil prices.
January offers for RSO were reported at €1,082-1,085 per tonne, while bids were in the range of €1,068-1,072 per tonne, compared with offers at €1,078 per tonne and buying interest at €1,070 per tonne on Friday December 5.
February volumes were offered at €1,077-1,082 per tonne, with bids of €1,057-1,069 per tonne, compared with offers around €1,075 per tonne and bids of €1,057-1062 per tonne on Friday.
As for the February-March-April (FMA) strip, offers were heard at €1,070-1,077 per tonne, with buy-side interest at €1,060-1,067 per tonne. This compared with offers of €1,070-1,074 per tonne and bids of €1,060-1,065 per tonne on Friday.
Further down the curve, May-June-July (MJJ) sellers were offering around €1,063 per tonne, while buy-side ideas ranged €1,048-1,055 per tonne. On Friday, the MJJ strip was offered at €1,058 per tonne, with bids also in the €1,048-1,055 per tonne range.
No new RSO trades were heard out in the open.
Prices for FOB sunflower oil (SFO) across six EU ports were steady on Monday, without major changes or liquidity reported.
January offers were reported as high as $1,360.00 per tonne, while offers for the January-February-March (JFM) window were heard at $1,345.00-1,350.00 per tonne, with bids around $1,332.50 per tonne. This compared with JFM offers at $1,345.00-1,355.00 per tonne and bids of $1,330.00-1,337.50 per tonne on Friday.
For April-May-June (AMJ) volumes, offers stood at $1,335.00-1,340.00 per tonne, while buying interest was indicated at $1,320.00-1,325.00 per tonne, compared with offers of $1,332.50-1,345.00 per tonne and bids at $1,325.00 per tonne at the end of last week.
No new SFO trades were reported out in the open.
In the Americas, CME soyoil futures dropped mainly driven by lower crude oil, while a weakness in the soybean complex added a negative pressure on prices.
The most-active January CME soyoil contract went down by 0.95% on the day to 51.20 cents per lb at 1pm US Eastern time.
Crude oil futures weighed on soyoil as energy prices broke a three-session gaining streak. Market participants continued to monitor negotiations to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Prospects of a cut in the US interest rate this week by the Federal Reserve added a negative tone.
Soybean futures traded lower in Chicago amid persistent concerns over whether China will buy enough US soybeans as previously expected, pushing soymeal prices down. Losses in soymeal were partly offset by weaker soyoil.
The most-liquid January soymeal contracts went slightly down by 0.29%, to $306.50 per short ton at 1pm US Eastern time.
Meanwhile, market participants adjusted positions ahead of the USDA monthly supply and demand report expected for Tuesday December 9. A slightly stronger US Dollar Index lent a further weakness to soy complex futures.
In the physical market in South America, bases negotiations were muted due to the holiday in Argentina. The January basis was assessed at discounts of 1.30 cent per lb in Argentina and 0.80 cent per lb in Brazil, both to January futures.
On the soymeal front, the January basis in Brazil was unchanged compared with the previous assessment, at a premium of $2.50 per short ton to January futures.
In Argentina, the corresponding soymeal basis was also unchanged compared with the previous price, assessed at a premium of $3 per short ton to the same futures contract.
The Black Sea sunflower oil market remained quiet on Monday, with limited activity. Russia-origin offers were heard around $1,315–1,320 per tonne CIF Mersin for delivery in the first half of January, while buying ideas for the same period were reported near $1,300 per tonne.
In the Ukrainian deep-sea ports (POC), the spot market was slightly softer, with activity additionally constrained by operational disruptions. Market participants noted that vessel arrivals have slowed, with navigation temporarily suspended at some ports — including Chornomorsk — due to storm conditions, while unloading operations have been progressing more slowly amid power-supply limitations and reliance on generators. As a result, buyers have been acting cautiously.
Spot demand was reported around $1,235–1,240 per tonne CPT, while sellers were indicating $1,240–1,255 per tonne for prompt loading.
Global soybean prices |
Symbol Description Date Price +/- Month Monthly Average Soybean CFR China $/mt 08 Dec 2025 474 -4.5 (-0.94%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 484.57 Soybean CFR China Premium c$/bu 08 Dec 2025 185 0 (0.00%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 188.47 Soybean CFR China (Brazil) $/mt 08 Dec 2025 474 -4.5 (-0.94%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 484.84 Soybean CFR China (Brazil) Premium c$/bu 08 Dec 2025 185 0 (0.00%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 188.47 Soybean CFR China (US Gulf) $/mt 08 Dec 2025 540.25 -4.25 (-0.78%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 552.59 Soybean CFR China (US Gulf) Premium c$/bu 08 Dec 2025 365 0 (0.00%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 373.16 Soybean CIF Netherlands $/mt 08 Dec 2025 466.25 4.5 (+0.97%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 474.74 Soybean FOB Cascavel R$/60kg 05 Dec 2025 136 0 (0.00%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 134.28 Soybean FOB Rondonopolis R$/60kg 05 Dec 2025 132.5 0 (0.00%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 132.11 Soybean FOB Ponta Grossa R$/60kg 05 Dec 2025 141 1 (+0.71%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 139.69 Soybean FAS Paranagua R$/60kg 05 Dec 2025 146 1 (+0.69%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 144.25 Soybean FOB Brazil Paranagua Paper $/mt 08 Dec 2025 431.5 4.5 (+1.05%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 443.4 Soybean FOB Brazil Paranagua Paper Premium c$/bu 08 Dec 2025 80 25 (+45.45%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 76.22 Soybean FOB Brazil Santos $/mt 08 Dec 2025 433.75 4.5 (+1.05%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 446.39 Soybean FOB Brazil Santos Premium c$/bu 08 Dec 2025 86 25 (+40.98%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 84.44 Soybean FOB Argentina $/mt 08 Dec 2025 420.5 -4.75 (-1.12%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 449.15 Soybean FOB Argentina Premium c$/bu 08 Dec 2025 50 0 (0.00%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 91.94 Soybean CIF US Gulf Barge $/mt 08 Dec 2025 434.75 -4.75 (-1.08%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 445.99 Soybean CIF US Gulf Barge Premium c$/bu 08 Dec 2025 89 0 (0.00%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 83.53 Soybean FOB US Gulf $/mt 08 Dec 2025 435.25 -4.75 (-1.08%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 449.83 Soybean FOB US Gulf Premium c$/bu 08 Dec 2025 90 0 (0.00%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 94.05 Soybean FOB US PNW $/mt 08 Dec 2025 448.25 -5 (-1.10%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 460.5 Soybean FOB US PNW Premium c$/bu 08 Dec 2025 126 0 (0.00%) Monthly Average Nov 2025 123.16 |
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